The Future of the Airline Industry

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We are pleased to announce this study.  It will be comprised of seven different parts and will take almost nine months to complete and will probably be almost 2,000 pages long. Different parts of the study are being done in conjunction with two Universities (Brigham Young University and Embry Riddle Aeronautical University).  The research will look at the following issues:

  1. Introduction.  In our opening series, we will outline the issues we will be addressing over the year and present some interesting questions that will be discussed. 
    Presented on February 8, 2010.  View our recorded stream.
     
  2. Jet Fuel. One year and a half ago, I thought the industry was teetering over a cliff and if the price of oil had stayed high for another year, we all would have been out of business. What is the probability of this happening again? What are the factors that cause the price of crude oil to fluctuate so much? What can we do about it? Will biosynthetic substitutes save the industry?
    Presented on April 6, 2010. View our recorded stream.

  3. Capacity.  As long as I can remember, I have heard about the industries over capacity problems. Along with over capacity is the over scheduling problems. Problems, problems, problems…  What do these terms mean.  Why is it a problem? If it is a problem what harm does it do? What are the solutions?  What does the future look like with respect to capacity?  What is the relationship between pricing and capacity? How much capacity is needed? Can airline managers learn from past mistakes and do better in the future?
    Presentation scheduled for June 30, 2010 at 12:00pm ET. Register for our webinar now.
     
  4. Alliances.  There are three big worldwide airline alliances.  Are these good or bad for consumers? Why do airlines enter into these?  What are the advantages and disadvantages of alliances for airlines? Are workers better or worse off because of them?  Will these alliances lead to further mergers and will they be content to be formal partners?
     
  5. The mountain of debt.  The first decade of the new century is being referred to by Time magazine as the “Decade from Hell.”  The twin shocks of 9/11 and the jet fuel spike have left the major carriers with a mountain of debt.  Will they be able to pay this off in the future?  Will the current debt holders be the new equity owners in five years? Will we see another round of chapter 11’s or liquidations?
     
  6. Re-regulation.  The big “R” word.  What does it mean?  Are there any serious plans out here for re-regulation?  We will look at two different re-regulation proposals and test them on various routes and see possible outcomes?  Will we be going back to a highly regulated price structure?  Will the low cost carriers be at an even bigger advantage over the legacies under re-regulation?  Stay tuned, this one will be enormously entertaining.
     
  7. The Next Generation Air Traffic System.  We have all heard about this for thirty years now.  Will the FAA ever get their act together enough to get a new system up and running?  What is it?  How is it different from the current system?  Will it really make a difference?

I am very excited about being a part of this gigantic study.  Do you have opinions about any of this?  Would you like to have a say in what we are doing?  If so, I can be reached at darryl@theairlinezone.com or via phone at 540-364-6913.  Please contact me and tell me what you think about all of this.